PREDICTING PRIVATE COMPANY FAILURE

Private company failure is a significant problem that is not fully addressed by existing research. This study develops a discriminant model from data on 107 private companies. The model predicts success and failure, based on six ratios obtained from the two immediately prior years' publicly available accounting reports. Based on a hold-out sample of 40 companies a prediction with 85% accuracy was achieved. This prediction was made one year ahead. The model indicates that the retained earnings/total assets, total liabilities/total assets, and shareholders funds/total liabilities ratios are the three major predictors of bankruptcy. Overall the model's coefficients are, as expected, substantially different to those of public company models.     

Termination of distressed residential mortgages: An empirical analysis

A sample of 209 distressed mortgages is used to analyze the terminations of distressed mortgages. An option-based model is compared to a traditional default model. Results show that the traditional model is statistically superior. However, the model's ability to identify a default is similar to that of the simpler option-based model. Alternative measures of borrower's equity are compared. Measuring borrower's equity using total debt more accurately explains default than using either the mortgage balance or the mortgage value.     

Statistical properties of returns: Financial assets versus commercial real estate

This study examines the distribution of commercial real estate returns by region (east, midwest, south, and west), by property type (office, retail, R&D office, and warehouse) and in the aggregate, and compares their distributions to those of financial assets. Nominal and real returns are examined for quarterly, semiannual, and annual periods. The quarterly nominal returns on the financial assets are mostly normal with very little indication of autocorrelation. In contrast, non-normality and autocorrelation are present in most of the nominal quarterly real estate series. The non-normality is greatly reduced when semiannual or annual returns are considered or when the quarterly series are corrected for autocorrelation. The non-normality is also lower for real returns than it is for nominal returns.     

Towards a cohesive curriculum tourism: The case for a distinct discipline

This paper addresses a controversial topic in tourism scholarship which is simultaneously a problem and an opportunity in tourism education: the philosophical issue of academic disciplines and specifically, the question of a distinct discipline in tourism studies. It is argued that the orthodox approach to tourism education, multi-disciplinary studies, has become an impediment. It is suggested that a new discipline can be created by organizing the existing body of knowledge and that such a discipline can become the core of an inter-disciplinary approach. Certain characteristics of an embryonic discipline are outlined and innovations in this area at Sydney Technical College are discussed.     

Lining Up for Star-Wars Tickets: Some Ruminations On Ethics and Economics Based on An Internet Study of Behavior in Queues

Queues may represent business ethics in microcosm: they provide an opportunity to study in a smaller package the fundamental ethical tension in economic activity between self-interest and civility in the context of uncertainty and stress. In May 1999 people began forming lines to purchase tickets to the new Star Wars movie "The Phantom Menace." This paper reviews responses to a questionnaire on the internet regarding experiences in those lines. It focuses on two behaviors threatening queue discipline – the formation of cooperative groups and "pre-scalping." It concludes that although queues are complex phenomena, exhibiting important ethical, economic, social, and psychological elements, the general organizing principle of "first-come-first-served" still provides the foundation for queues while at the same time making room for a variety of legitimate modifications. Second, this paper concludes that, as with queues, the thought that self-interest is the exclusive guiding principle for business behavior is likewise too narrow, inducing participants to neglect opportunities for personal enrichment and satisfaction.     

Long memory and structural breaks in commodity futures markets

This study employs daily data for 14 commodities and three financial assets 1990–2009 to explore the impact of the time series properties of the futures‐spot basis and the cost of carry on forward market unbiasedness. The main result is that the basis of 16 assets exhibits both long memory and structural breaks. The long memory in the basis is robust even to the use of break‐adjusted data. It implies that the cost‐of‐carry has long memory which the empirical results confirm using the interest cost as a proxy. These new findings suggest that the forecast error has long memory and are inconsistent with unbiasedness. They could be consistent with a weaker version of market efficiency in the presence of a fractionally integrated, time‐varying risk premium but they could also be rationalized by priced noise trader risk with limits to arbitrage in less than fully efficient markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

The Nature of Business Planning Undertaken by General Practitioner Fundholding Practices in the North West Region

This article focuses on a central feature of the former Conservative Government's approach to the National Health Service (NHS), the introduction of General Practitioner Fundholding. It examines the nature of business planning undertaken by fundholding practices in the North West Region by looking at the participation of various stakeholders in the business planning process, the business planning techniques adopted and the extent to which fundholding practices set and monitor their objectives.